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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the award. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking upset.

Yet this year's field is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime underperformers improving in unison. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun season, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still