Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to head off any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.